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Coldcard Drained, ETFs Rebound

July 31, 2026 · 10:13

Opening Brief

A rough end to July. A hardware wallet flaw just drained $38 million in Bitcoin in 25 minutes, and Coldcard is telling Mk3 owners to move their coins now. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs posted their strongest day in three weeks, $233 million in net inflows, almost entirely powered by BlackRock. Perplexity dropped its Personal Computer agent onto Windows at $200 a month, aiming straight at Microsoft Copilot. And Strategy booked an $8.2 billion quarterly loss on Bitcoin's slide, with Saylor now scrambling to fix a broken dividend engine by September. Bitcoin sits near $64,000, calm on the surface, coiled underneath.

Coldcard Seed Flaw

Let's start with the story that's rattling anyone who takes self-custody seriously. A flaw in Coldcard's Mk3 seed generation let an attacker recreate private keys and sweep 594 Bitcoin, about $38 million, in a 25-minute window. Coinkite, the maker, is now warning Mk3 owners on firmware 4.0.1 and later that their funds may be at risk. Mk4 and Mk5 devices are also affected on certain firmware versions before a patch.

Here's what actually happened. The random number generator that produces your seed phrase wasn't random enough. A Bitcoin Core contributor demonstrated he could recreate a vulnerable seed on a freshly initialized Mk3. Which means the entropy pool, the thing that's supposed to make your 24 words impossible to guess out of 2 to the 256th possibilities, was collapsing into a space small enough to brute force. Longtime Bitcoiners are calling this one of the worst hardware wallet failures in Bitcoin's history.

And look, this is the uncomfortable truth about hardware wallets. You are trusting a closed hardware pipeline, a firmware team, and a random number generator you can't inspect. Coldcard has a strong reputation, arguably one of the best. And it still shipped a bug that let attackers derive keys from a button press.

A few practical points. If you're on an affected device, move your coins to a new seed generated on patched firmware or a different device. Consider using dice rolls or coin flips to generate entropy yourself, which Coldcard actually supports. And if you're holding meaningful size, multisig with hardware from different vendors stops any single-vendor bug from being fatal. One flawed device in a two-of-three setup is an inconvenience. One flawed device holding everything is a headline.

ETF Rebound and Strategy's Pain

On to the flows. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $233 million on July 30, the strongest daily haul in over three weeks. BlackRock's IBIT ate 79% of that, roughly $183 million. Bitwise, Fidelity, Morgan Stanley, VanEck, Grayscale's mini trust, and ARKB all added smaller amounts. No fund posted outflows. Total ETF assets now sit near $78.76 billion, with IBIT alone holding about $47.67 billion.

But here's the honest read. The day before, July 29, the sector barely limped into positive territory at $32 million net, and that was purely because IBIT's $89 million inflow offset outflows from Fidelity and ARK. Strip out BlackRock and July's recovery looks a lot less impressive. July inflows total about $438 million, which reverses two ugly months, but it's modest next to earlier peaks. And CoinDesk is noting the top options trade right now is protection against Bitcoin falling to $60,000 in August. Traders are bracing.

Meanwhile Strategy reported an $8.2 billion Q2 loss driven by unrealized Bitcoin markdowns. Michael Saylor's company has been forced into some Bitcoin sales, has built a $3.75 billion cash reserve to cover preferred stock dividends, and is targeting September to repair its STRC preferred stock, the financing channel behind its plan to double Bitcoin per share within seven years. The leveraged treasury model works beautifully in a bull market. In a chop, it demands cash reserves and creative financing to survive.

And on the more speculative end, a PPE supplier's much-hyped $32 million Bitcoin treasury plan just quietly expired on October 9 without a single coin purchased. And a cleaning products company with $4.1 million in cash and some Dogecoin somehow committed to a $500 million AI deal. The treasury company gold rush is starting to show its bottom of the barrel.

Perplexity Goes Enterprise

Perplexity brought its Personal Computer agent to Windows this week, and the framing here matters. This isn't a search tool anymore. It's an AI worker that lives on your desktop, reads your local files, drives Microsoft 365 and Teams, browses the web, and executes multi-step workflows across all of it. Create a Word doc, update an Excel sheet, organize your files, negotiate a meeting, done through one conversational interface.

The architecture is interesting. Local app handles file access and app interaction. Cloud handles reasoning. And instead of locking you to a single model like Copilot does with Microsoft's stack, Perplexity routes sub-tasks across 20-plus frontier models. The default orchestrator is Claude Opus 4.7, but you can swap in GPT-5.4 or Claude Sonnet 4.6. They also expanded Model Council to the platform, letting you assemble 2 to 8 models to independently analyze the same problem and produce a synthesis showing where they agree and disagree. Think of it as a boardroom of AIs debating your legal question or your financial model.

Pricing is the wedge. Perplexity Personal Computer starts at $200 per user per month. Copilot is roughly $30. That's almost 7x. Perplexity is betting enterprises will pay for model diversity, cross-platform orchestration across Salesforce, Google Docs, Excel, whatever, and privacy guarantees. No training on customer data, user approval before sensitive actions, activity logs for audit.

And it's not alone. Freehand just raised $75 million from Battery Ventures and NewRoad Capital to scale autonomous AI agents that handle enterprise procurement, contract reading, rate negotiations, and payments. Customers include Meta, Unilever, J&J, Pfizer, Cardinal Health. They're claiming 5 to 10% spend recovery, 70% faster procure-to-pay cycles. FedEx is expanding Dexterity's physical AI for autonomous trailer loading at its Hagerstown hub. The pattern is clear. Agents are moving out of the demo and into the P&L.

Sovereign Mining and the Energy Play

Last topic, and it's the one I think gets underreported. Oman just launched Omanhash, a state-supervised mandatory national Bitcoin mining pool. Every licensed miner in the country has to route hashrate through it. Phase one consolidates roughly 10 exahash per second, taking the pool to about 25 exahash, targeting 30. Run by the Ministry of Transport, Communications and Information Technology, with Frontech and Enegix as partners.

Set aside the mandatory part for a second, which is genuinely unusual and worth watching. The bigger signal is that sovereigns are treating hashrate as national infrastructure. Bhutan's Gelephu Mindfulness City just tapped 3iQ to manage part of its Bitcoin treasury. Brazilian energy companies are turning to Bitcoin mining to monetize stranded gas and wasted power, according to Daniel Batten. And the Middle East and Africa are quietly becoming the frontier for green-energy-backed sovereign mining.

Why this matters. Masdar in Abu Dhabi just closed a $6.1 billion financing on a 5.2 GW solar plant paired with 19 GWh of battery storage, round-the-clock clean power. Africa added 26 GW of renewables from 2013 to 2023. Solar costs are down 90% since 2010, batteries down 93%. When you build that much intermittent generation, you have two options for the moments when supply exceeds demand. Curtail it, which is throwing money away. Or monetize it with a flexible load that can shut off in milliseconds. That flexible load is Bitcoin mining.

The Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline debate captures the tension. Energy analysts are urging Nigeria to pause a $27 billion export project and instead use gas domestically. Mining sits in exactly that gap. It monetizes energy at the wellhead, at the solar farm, at the geothermal plant, without needing pipelines to distant buyers. And it moves. If the grid needs power, you turn miners off. Try doing that with a chemical plant.

Watch this space. The narrative that Bitcoin mining is an environmental problem is aging poorly. The countries with cheap stranded energy are figuring out it's a subsidy for building more renewables.

Closing Thought

One thing worth chewing on. This week we watched an $8.2 billion loss at a Bitcoin treasury company, a $38 million hardware wallet drain, and record ETF flows all at once. Same asset, same week. If you can't hold all three of those in your head without flinching, your position size is probably wrong.