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Bitcoin Holds as Oil Shocks Rattle Markets

March 09, 2026 · 11:35

Opening

This is Fulgur News for March 9th, 2026. Bitcoin is showing remarkable resilience around sixty-seven to sixty-nine thousand dollars while global markets are in turmoil over a massive oil price spike driven by the U.S.-Iran conflict. Strategy just made another billion-dollar-plus Bitcoin buy, pushing its total holdings past seven hundred and thirty-eight thousand coins. In AI, a new foundation model called Evo 2 trained on over nine trillion nucleotides is learning to read and design genetic code. And stablecoin infrastructure is pulling in serious venture capital, with KAST raising eighty million and several new players entering the payments space. Let's get into it.

Bitcoin Resilience Amid Oil Shock

So the big story this week is oil. Crude futures surged as much as twenty-five to thirty percent overnight, briefly topping a hundred and seventeen dollars a barrel as the U.S.-Iran conflict expanded and rattled energy markets globally. Asian stock indices got hammered. The Nikkei dropped more than six percent. The Kospi slid about eight percent. And yet Bitcoin held. It dipped briefly to around sixty-five thousand six hundred, but bounced back to nearly sixty-nine thousand. That's a five percent relief bounce from its weekly low, and it's been outperforming both equities and gold since the Middle East tensions escalated.

Why does this matter? Because for years we've debated whether Bitcoin is a risk asset or a safe haven. And right now, in a genuine geopolitical crisis with oil shocks and equity selloffs, Bitcoin is holding its ground. NYDIG's Greg Cipolaro made an interesting point that the correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks is overblown. They're both reacting to macro conditions, but they're not trading in tandem. The U.S. being largely energy-independent may be helping here. American markets aren't as exposed to oil shocks as, say, Japan or South Korea, and Bitcoin seems to be riding alongside that relative insulation.

That said, not everyone is bullish. Ed Yardeni raised his probability of a U.S. market crash to thirty-five percent. And on-chain analyst Willy Woo is warning that Bitcoin's recent rebound to seventy-four thousand was actually a bull trap, with the real bottom potentially not arriving until late 2026 somewhere around forty-five thousand. Santiment data shows whales who accumulated between sixty-three and seventy thousand have already sold about sixty-six percent of those positions, while retail is buying the dip. That whale-to-retail handoff historically isn't a great sign.

The key levels to watch are sixty-seven to sixty-eight thousand as immediate support, which also happens to be the volume point of control on the weekly chart. If that fails, traders are eyeing sixty-one thousand as the next major level. But the fact that Bitcoin is sitting here at sixty-seven to sixty-nine K while oil just had its biggest shock in years, that's actually a pretty strong signal. As one analyst put it, Bitcoin holding above sixty-seven thousand amid oil at a hundred and nineteen per barrel might be the strongest indicator that the bottom is in. Or at least close.

Strategy Crosses 738K Bitcoin

Michael Saylor is not slowing down. Strategy bought another seventeen thousand nine hundred and ninety-four Bitcoin last week for approximately one point three billion dollars, at an average price of about seventy thousand nine hundred and forty-six per coin. That brings the company's total holdings to seven hundred and thirty-eight thousand seven hundred and thirty-one Bitcoin, acquired for a total of roughly fifty-six billion dollars. At current prices around sixty-eight thousand, those holdings are worth about fifty billion, meaning Strategy is sitting on an unrealized loss of around six billion dollars.

Saylor's framing of this is interesting. He titled the announcement 'the second century begins,' presumably a reference to the fact that the company now holds well over one percent of all Bitcoin that will ever exist. The purchases were funded through ongoing sales of Class A common stock and perpetual preferred stock. It's the same playbook he's been running for years now, using the equity markets as a funding mechanism to accumulate more Bitcoin.

What's notable is the persistence. The average cost basis across all of Strategy's holdings is about seventy-five thousand eight hundred and sixty-two dollars per coin. Bitcoin is trading below that. Most corporate treasury managers would be getting nervous phone calls from their board. Saylor is buying more. Whether you think this is visionary or reckless depends entirely on your time horizon and your conviction about Bitcoin's trajectory.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the Atlantic, Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, just took a six percent stake in Stack BTC, a London-listed Bitcoin treasury company chaired by former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng. The investment was about two hundred and eighty-six thousand dollars, which is modest, but it's another data point showing the Bitcoin treasury model spreading beyond the U.S. into European public markets. The twenty millionth Bitcoin was also mined this week, leaving fewer than one million left to be created. As Grayscale noted, a digital money system with transparent, predictable, and ultimately scarce supply has rising appeal in today's economy, especially given fiat currency tail risks. That scarcity narrative only sharpens as we approach the hard cap.

Stablecoin Infrastructure Boom

Stablecoin payments infrastructure is having a moment. Let me run through the numbers. KAST raised eighty million dollars at a six hundred million dollar valuation to expand its cross-border stablecoin payments platform. Cyclops raised eight million from Castle Island Ventures, F-Prime, and Shift4 Payments to build an all-in-one stablecoin integration layer for payment service providers. And the one that caught my eye most, Utexo raised seven point five million in seed funding to build Bitcoin-native USDT settlement rails, with backing from Tether itself and Franklin Templeton.

Utexo is particularly interesting because it's building directly on Bitcoin. The idea is to enable fast, predictable USDT transfers on the Bitcoin network through a single API layer. If you're a Bitcoin maximalist, this is exactly what you want to see. Rather than stablecoin activity migrating entirely to Ethereum, Solana, or Tron, there's now real capital flowing into infrastructure that keeps dollar-denominated settlement on Bitcoin's rails.

On the institutional side, global insurance broker Aon is testing stablecoin payments with Coinbase and Paxos, using USDC on Ethereum and PayPal USD on Solana for insurance premium payments. When one of the world's largest insurance brokers is experimenting with stablecoin settlement, that tells you something about where this is heading.

CoinDesk ran a thought-provoking piece this week asking whether U.S. stablecoins are essentially CBDCs in disguise. The argument is that while Washington has officially rejected a retail Federal Reserve digital dollar, the regulatory framework taking shape around private stablecoins normalizes freeze, block, and hold functions that look an awful lot like central bank digital currency capabilities. It's worth thinking about. The same infrastructure that enables fast permissionless payments can also enable surveillance and control, depending on how it's governed. For Bitcoiners, this is exactly why the base layer matters. Stablecoins are useful, but they inherit the trust assumptions of their issuers and their regulators. Bitcoin doesn't.

AI Foundation Models Reshape Drug Discovery

Let's shift to AI, where the action this week is in biological foundation models. The Arc Institute, working with NVIDIA and several university collaborators, released Evo 2, a DNA foundation model trained on over nine point three trillion nucleotides from more than a hundred and twenty-eight thousand genomes spanning diverse species. Think of it as a large language model, but instead of learning patterns in human text, it learns patterns in genetic code across the tree of life. Evo 2 can identify disease-causing mutations and even design new genetic sequences by understanding the evolutionary signals embedded in DNA.

This is a genuinely big deal. The ability to read and write genetic code with AI has implications for everything from rare disease research to synthetic biology to agriculture. It's the kind of foundational capability that could compound in impact over years.

In the drug discovery space specifically, Insilico Medicine and Liquid AI announced a partnership to deliver lightweight foundation models optimized for pharmaceutical work. Their LFM2 model, at just two point six billion parameters, achieves state-of-the-art results across property prediction, molecular optimization, and chemical reasoning tasks, and it runs entirely on private infrastructure. No cloud dependency. For pharma companies worried about data security and IP, that's a major selling point. The model outperforms much larger models on key benchmarks, showing that clever architecture design can beat brute-force scale.

Separately, Nscale, a UK-based AI infrastructure company, raised two billion dollars in its Series C, the largest in European history, at a fourteen point six billion dollar valuation. They're building the GPU compute and networking infrastructure that all these AI workloads run on. They've also added Sheryl Sandberg, Susan Decker, and Nick Clegg to their board, which signals serious ambitions to become a global AI infrastructure layer.

The through-line here is that AI is becoming deeply specialized. We've moved past the era of general-purpose chatbot excitement into purpose-built models for biology, chemistry, and medicine that run on dedicated infrastructure. The companies building these vertical AI capabilities and the infrastructure underneath them are where a lot of the real value creation is happening now.

Closing Thought

Here's the takeaway. Bitcoin held steady through the biggest oil shock in years while traditional markets panicked. That's not proof of anything permanent, but it's a data point worth sitting with. In a world of escalating geopolitical risk, rising debt, and supply-driven inflation, an asset that doesn't depend on any single country's energy policy or central bank starts to look less like speculation and more like insurance. Watch those key levels, stay patient, and I'll talk to you tomorrow.